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libya[s86,jmc]		The raid on Libya

su-bboards
We should give diplomacy a chance in Libya.

To begin with, some queries.

1. Why did we need the F-111s?  Was it political - to involve at
least one other country?  That could be a good reason.  Was it
political - perhaps the Air Force didn't want it all left to the
Navy?  That would be a bad reason.  The reason given was that the
F-111s were more accurate, and that could be a good reason.

Losing one airplane out of eighteen is probably too high a loss
rate for the repeating the operation more than once or twice.
Was the loss to be expected?

2. Did the agreement with Britain provide for repeating the
operation?

Now for comments.

1. Already the Europeans seem to be getting used to our undertaking this
kind of operation.  America is like that, they are beginning to say.
Of course, some approve.  Surprisingly, the Iraqi businessman I sat
next to on an airplane, said he approved.

2. The operation makes more sense if it is part of a sustained plan
rather than a one shot.  However, even the one shot seems to have
had some good effects on the attitude of the Europeans, i.e. it has
moved them off dead center.  See Craxi's statement.
It also may have had some effects within Libya.  If as rumored,
Cadafi (my very own spelling) has had to share power, it's unlikely
that the other four are all as crazy as he is.

3. Now that we probably have Libya's attention, it may be time for
diplomacy.  Libya should, through intermediaries, be offered a reward for
giving up supporting terrorists with money and smuggling arms through
their diplomatic pouches.  The reward might be a promise to refrain from
blockading them or wrecking their oil installations.  Of course, it
may turn out that we don't have their attention yet.

4. The predicted big increase in terror may not occur.  Libyan sponsored
terrorism may already have been limited by their ability to plan
and carry out operations.  Also Caddaffi's (another spelling)
war cries, "Let's you commit suicide to avenge me."  may not meet
with the mass response he hopes for.